Of Interest: WIRELESS ACCESS TO INTERNET now? (fwd)

["Richard H. Fifarek" <rfifarek@som.siu.edu>]

Subject: Of Interest:  WIRELESS ACCESS TO INTERNET now?

MOTOROLA, CISCO AND OTHERS AIM AT WIRELESS ACCESS TO INTERNET      02.12.99
===========================================================================

  Motorola, Cisco Systems, Nextel, Netscape, Microsoft, Qualcomm and other
moguls of computing and the Internet are announcing partnerships and other
new plans aimed at developing wireless connections with the Internet.

  Why are they all doing this? Do enough customers really want it? Do they
want it now - that is., within the next few years?

  The level of demand remains a crucial question, but wireless connection
with the Internet is an attractive idea.

  Imagine the following situations:

  --You are attending a very popular, tightly-packed technical seminar. Just
before a break is due, you sneak out, hoping  to get to a phone, check your
email messages, and compose a few brief replies. You discover that long
lines have already accumulated outside all the available phones. Most of the
people in line are preparing to do exactly what you intend to do, and it
will take a long time.

  Result: you won't have time to grab a quick bagel-and-coffee, you may even
have to postpone that trip to the bathroom, and it seems certain that you
will miss the first portion of the speech by the next speaker, who happens
to be the CEO of your company.

  --During a drive across Ohio, icy roads force you to stop over at a
no-name motel. Its phone jacks are sealed into the walls. The motel seems an
easy-going kind of place, but you doubt that they would tolerate it if you
tore open half a wall in order to get at a naked phone line. You think of
calling a colleague and asking him to check your email, but then you doubt
whether it would be wise to give him your password. After all, some of the
private messages you receive are best kept to yourself.

  --In an extreme case, you are traveling by train across Western China. You
are sharing a compartment with a impressive, very plausible Chinese
industrialist who talks about a business opportunity that could be a real
winner. You would like to reach your office in Beijing and ask them to
verify this gentleman's background and reputation before you carry your
discussions any farther. Yet you know that there are no telephone
connections on the train, it may take hours to get through by any local
phone, and the train's station stops last only a few minutes.

NO LONGER FAR-FETCHED

  In today's mobile world, inhabited by people infatuated with communication
and obsessed by the need to maintain constant contact with their sources of
information, situations like these are no longer far-fetched.

  In principle, all these difficulties could be overcome by a simple
solution -- a reliable, portable, affordable wireless connection to the
Internet.

  After all, everyone likely to place themselves in situations like this
travels with laptop computers. Many also use palmtop or hand-held computers
that are even more portable. A large percentage of these people also use
cell phones.

  In principle, it should be easy to plug your computer into your cell phone
and have the best of both worlds.

  Not quite. The technological issues are not negligible, but not out of
reach. More important, the issues of standardization, compatibility, and
cost are still unresolved.

  It has been possible for a number of years to purchase wireless modems
that connect with laptops or hand-held systems, usually through PCM-CIA
slots. Some of the most popular solutions are smaller than a can of
sardines, with their own little antenna and rechargable battery.

  Unfortunately, typical products of this kind do not connect with
commercial cellular networks. Signals from the gadget are received by
antenna operated by proprietary services, which  transfer the data to and
from the regular Internet.

  Costs have come down. Prices for wireless cards and other wireless modems
have descended from close to $1000 to the $400 or so now quoted by one
widely-used service. There is, however,  an additional charge for the use of
the proprietary network, now starting as low as $15 per month or so but
often including  costs per message or other charges that add up quickly.

  Consequently, wireless connections to the Internet have remained a
relatively small niche market, appealing to customers with special
requirements, including incurable appetites for constant contact with home
base.

TELECOMS FOLKS FIND A NEW SCHOOL

  Major players in the telecommunications industry tends to pursue new fads
in schools, changing direction simultaneously and darting about in a flock,
like blackbirds or the small, striped tropical fish that inhabit coral
reefs.

  This schooling behavior is now evident once again in flocks streaming
toward wireless access to the Internet. The biggest fish in this new trend
include Motorola and Cisco Systems, Inc. The ambitious plans of their
proposed partnership include long-term attention to basic technological
issues. According to press reports, the two companies plan to open joint R&D
centers in the US and abroad.

  Their objective, according to these reports, is to establish a new open
standard for IP packet-switched wireless transfer of data, as well as voice
and video feeds, through stations like those used for cellular telephony.
Their development budget is said to total $1 billion. New products are
expected within two years.

  Motorola has also been fascinated by truly global systems that could be of
value to adventurous travelers like the businessman in the
train-journey-across-China example mentioned above. The company has invested
heavily in a satellite system called Iridium, focused on voice transmission
and paging, that in principle can be accessed anywhere in the world. Anyone
with a more or less portable system (and the wherewithal to pay the hefty
fees) has the same access to the world that until now has required a
stationary set and a disk at least the size of a medium pizza.

  In addition, Motorola has  put money into Teledisc, another satellite
system emphasizing data transmission, that is a personal enthusiasm of
Microsoft mandarin Bill Gates. Other satellite-based systems are in various
stages of development, with someclose to completion.

  Meanwhile, Netscape and Nextel are talking about a project called "Nextel
Online" aimed at a marriage of cell phones and email capabilities.

  Other telecoms sharks and dolphins like AT&T, Northern Telcom, Lucent, and
Qualcomm have been engaging in courting behavior and other movements that
could position them to establish a position in the same part of the ocean.

DICK TRACY'S GREAT-GRANDCHILDREN

  Over the long term, the appeal of wireless solutions for data transfer is
difficult to resist. The image of browsing the Web over the great-grandchild
of the Dick Tracy wrist radio still captures the imgination.

  If the objective is to meet the specialized requirements of the small (but
for the most part well-heeled) population of incurable 24-hours a day,
everywhere-in-the-world Internet freaks, the technology - and service backup
-will be developed to meet those needs - at prices lower than today's
systems, but still relatively stiff.

  But will a genuinely mass market appear in the next five to ten next
years? Will the technology have the simplicity, flexibility, reliability,
and low price required for mass sales?

  Serious business uses and specialized applications like video will require
lots of bandwidth and the capability to handle large transmissions with a
very low loss rate. For the small portable systems that now exist, these are
intimidating requirements.

  The new projects like the one proposed  by Motorola and Cisco may possess
the funds and determination needed to approach the  goal of wireless access
that approximates the performance of wired connections, but it could take
quite a while. And it seems doubtful that this hypothetical market possesses
enough demand to support all the companies that are expressing interest.

  It should be remembered that the schooling habits and blind enthusiasms of
telecoms companies have led them into trouble in the past. The
video-on-demand infatutation of 1993-94 is the most painful example.

  If a misplaced mass frenzy leading to mass disappointment were to delay
unduly the advent of practical, affordable, wireless access to the Internet,
that would be a great shame.

  It would be so nice to get that bagel and coffee, with perhaps some
grapefruit juice, sit down at an unoccupied table, handle your Internet
business, make an unhurried visit to the bathroom, and take your seat in the
meeting hall while all those other guys are still waiting in line for a
phone.

----------------------------
Norris Parker Smith, nsmith03@snet.net , is a journalist who specializes in
HPC and high bandwidth communications. Reader comments are welcome.


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