Re: Microsoft edging toward the brink? -- Novell will break MS

[Robert Citek <rwcitek@alum.calberkeley.org>]

On Saturday, Feb 12, 2005, at 14:19 US/Central, Bryan J. Smith wrote:
> On Sat, 2005-02-12 at 13:46 -0600, Robert Citek wrote:
>> Here, here!  MS isn't a software company.  It's a software 
>> distribution
>> company.
>
> Actually, I consider them an investment company that outsources
> everything.

I'd agree if they did outsource everything.  But as you mention, MS 
does have their own development team.  Also, I can't think of one 
instance where MS has acted like a venture capitalist or angel 
investor.  Instead, they tend to purchase the competing business 
outright, or crush them.

But I'm curious to know, how do you see MS as an investment company?

>> Things that are chipping away at the control of the distribution 
>> chain:
>> FLOSS, BitTorrent, cheap CDs and CD-burners, and inexpensive
>> broadband.
>
> Er, not really IMHO.  These contribute, yes, but they have _always_ 
> been
> available in one form or another to the masses.  Cheap bandwidth has
> largely been used for other, and in many cases "not so ethical,"
> purposes by the masses.  But those who wanted Freedomware before its
> availability always had an avenue in one form or another.

That is very true: if you knew about FLOSS and where to get it, you 
could.  That's also true of pirated software: if you knew about it and 
where to get it, you could.  But MS is making it harder and harder to 
get its software, even pirated versions.  For one, each new OS required 
a more powerful computer.  Then, with each new OS there were more hoops 
to getting it to run, with the most recent hoop being "activation."  A 
future hoop: hardware authentication.  As time goes on, those hoops 
that MS puts up are beginning to look like enormous obstacles.

Now enter FLOSS, BitTorrent, and inexpensive broadband.  With FLOSS 
getting more and more press, people are beginning to realize that they 
could keep their existing hardware and install FLOSS instead.  But how 
do they get FLOSS?  Answer: use BitTorrent and download the FLOSS over 
your inexpensive broadband connection.

> The _real_ challenge to Microsoft is the business consumers who want
> Linux from the traditional distribution channels.  I've always said 
> that
> it will not be organized home users that overthrown the Microsoft
> monopoly, but the adoption of Linux in the business.  Because once
> businesses have Freedomware on the desktop, it is only a matter of time
> before people bring it home.

Agreed.  But I think that more and more businesses are realizing that 
they don't have to go to CompUSA or Best Buy to get their software.  In 
fact, they are realizing they don't even have to go to CDW to have 
software shipped to them.  Businesses are getting more and more 
comfortable with getting software over the Internet.  We do.  In fact, 
we even get MS software over the internet.  For example, we never 
installed IE6 from a CD at work.  We got it over the 'net from 
Microsoft.   For some other software, we downloaded the ISO and, after 
purchase, we were sent (e-mail, fax, voice, etc.) the software key to 
install it.  We are becoming very comfortable with getting software 
(and other items, e.g. orders, contracts, etc.) over the 'net.

If businesses can get MS software over the 'net, the obvious question 
then becomes what other software can they get over the 'net?  Answer: 
FLOSS, with perhaps the biggest example to date being FireFox.  And how 
can we get FLOSS quickly and reliably?  Answer: BitTorrent.  (Although 
Mozilla has not provided BitTorrent as an option, most distributors of 
ISOs that are including Mozilla FireFox do, including the OpenCD, 
Fedora, Xandros, and Knoppix.)

So, while I agree that business consumers will challenge Microsoft, I 
believe they will be looking to non-traditional distributors and 
non-traditional distribution methods, such as BitTorrent.  And, 
initially, they will not be looking so much to linux (except maybe the 
IT department for their servers), but rather to desktop applications 
like FireFox, OpenOffice.org, Thunderbird, that extend the life of 
their existing desktop hardware and run on their existing familiar 
desktop operating system: Windows.

Thoughts?  BTW, the above is just an opinion and I reserve the right to 
be wrong.  :)

Regards,
- Robert
http://www.cwelug.org/downloads
Help others get OpenSource software.  Distribute FLOSS
for Windows, Linux, *BSD, and MacOS X with BitTorrent


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